- Producto Potencial, Stock de Capital y Empleo
- Productividad del Trabajo
- Rendimiento Promedio del Stock de Capital
- Tasa de Utilización de los Factores de Producciòn
- Inversión
- Consumo Nacional
Los Lotófagos
En las buenas librerías de Lima, se vende un libro extraordinario del filósofo alemán Manfred Osten, una Breve Historia del Olvido y la Destrucción de la Antigua Cultura del Recuerdo , pero parece que el autor encontró el título de esta sorprendente obra demasiado extenso , porque finalmente alteró el nombre para inclinarse por la brevedad y así denominarlo La Memoria Robada. ¿Una decisión afortunada? Preguntó porque no me llega a satisfacer plenamente la versión breve , pues pone demasiado énfasis en el segundo aspecto . Y a mí, me intrigó más, la misteriosa historia del olvido.
Medida y crisis
Parte I
Bruno Seminario y Sebastián Calvo
Aunque el Producto Bruto Interno (PBI) es un indicador bastante conocido y de uso general, es bueno recordar que éste, en un plazo muy corto de tiempo, puede no medir con precisión la marcha del ciclo económico o el nivel de bienestar de una economía individual.
Si bien en teoría este índice registra el valor total de la producción de bienes y servicios de una economía en un lapso de tiempo, en la práctica, las agencias estadísticas, sea por razones económicas o por las limitaciones estructurales de sus registros estadísticos, carecen de la información requerida para realizar el cálculo teórico, y se ven obligadas a conjeturar la evolución de un número vasto de industrias o sectores económicos. Como resultado, este índice, en vez de medir la evolución del producto de una economía registra, en realidad, un compromiso donde intervienen datos parciales, conjeturas educadas, procedimientos consagrados por la costumbre, etc.
También existen otras dificultades teóricas de profunda relevancia para las economías andinas. En primer lugar, la metodología estadística utilizada para el cálculo de este indicador presenta limitaciones cuando se registran observaciones extremas que afectan a un número muy limitado de industrias. En estas circunstancias, es probable que este índice sólo muestre lo que ocurre en estos sectores y no las condiciones generales que prevalecen en una economía. Ello es así, porque este indicador es un promedio ponderado de índices individuales de producción. Este tipo de construcciones estadísticas, aunque populares, son poco robustas, es decir, sensibles al impacto de este tipo de eventos excepcionales. En segundo lugar, los pesos que se utilizan para agregar los índices individuales de producción pueden ser bastante sensibles a las condiciones económicas que prevalecieron en el año elegido como base y que se emplea para realizar la comparación.
Estos problemas parecen no ser muy relevantes en las economías más avanzadas. Al no registrarse en ellas cambios drásticos en la estructura de los precios relativos, las ponderaciones escogidas como base no experimentan cambios sustanciales. Estas economías tampoco experimentan cambios estructurales drásticos sino procesos donde parece dominar los cambios suaves y tendenciales. También, el mayor tamaño y complejidad de la economía permite, con frecuencia, hacer desaparecer el efecto de los desarrollos de naturaleza excepcional.
Desafortunadamente, las economías andinas no disfrutan de estas bondadosas características estructurales. En todas ellas se han registrado, en los últimos cincuenta años, cambios drásticos en la estructura de los precios relativos o profundas alteraciones en los precios relativos.
II
En el panorama descrito, resulta más prudente intentar medir el estado de un economía con un conjunto de series, en lugar de un utilizar un único indicador, ya que estudiando los movimientos comunes de este conjunto, podemos descartar, con mayor facilidad, el probable impacto de los desarrollos excepcionales, los errores de medición o el impacto de los cambios drásticos en los precios relativos.
Después de un examen de las estadísticas disponibles en los distintos países, la calidad probable de la información disponible y la probable disponibilidad de las series, proponemos construir este indicador compuesto a partir de las siguientes series estadísticas:
· El Producto Bruto Interno (PBI).
· El índice de producción industrial (Minería, Manufactura y Electricidad).
· La Demanda Interna Autónoma (Gasto Público, Inversión Bruta Fija e Inversión Privada).
· El Volumen de Comercio Exterior (Exportaciones e Importaciones).
· El PBI de los sectores no primarios.
Con este fin se utilizó la Base de Datos de Estadísticas e Indicadores Económicos provista por la CEPAL. Las series fueron obtenidas a partir de las estadísticas de Producto Bruto Interno por clase de actividad económica y por tipo de gasto para el periodo de 1990 a2007, expresadas en dólares constantes del año 2000.
El indicador compuesto puede obtenerse para cada economía de la Comunidad Andina de Naciones (CAN), si se pudiera especificar, mediante algún procedimiento, pesos que reflejen los movimientos conjuntos de estas series. La fórmula para derivar la trayectoria del este indicador compuesto puede escribirse como sigue, en logaritmos:
LnI=w1Lnx1+w2Lnx2+…+wnLnxn
Donde xi denota la serie i y 
son los distintos pesos o ponderaciones del indicador compuesto. Existen numerosos procedimientos estadísticos que permiten determinar las ponderaciones que corresponden a cada serie individual. El más convincente es el empleado por The Conference Board, la organización privada que publica indicadores semejantes para los distintos países de la OECD.
El procedimiento que utiliza esta organización para computar el índice agregado de actividad económica consta de cinco pasos:
i. Computar las tasas de variación para cada componente. Si el componente es un porcentaje o una tasa de interés, estas se computan mediante diferencias aritméticas:
xt=xt-xt-1
Si este no fuera el caso, se utilizan diferencias logarítmicas:
xt=lnxt-lnxt-1
ii. Ajustar estas variaciones para igualar la volatilidad de cada componente. Para ello se miden la desviación estándar de los cambios de cada componente, denotada por σx. Invertir estos estadísticos y normalizar para que los factores sumen 1. Denotaremos a los factores normalizados mediante la expresión rx:
iii. Determinar la tasa de crecimiento del índice compuesto. Para ello utilizar la siguiente fórmula:
it=r1x1t+r2x2t+…+rnxnt
iv. Computar el nivel de índice. Para ello acumulamos las variaciones del índice compuesto, haciendo igual a cero el valor inicial. El nivel del índice en cada periodo se obtiene mediante la fórmula:
It=100eLnit
v. Escoger algún año como base. Computar el promedio de los índices que corresponden a este año y dividir toda la serie por este promedio. Empleando la base de datos de estadísticas económicas publicada por la CEPAL y aplicando el procedimiento descrito previamente se construyó el indicador de actividad económica para cada uno de los países de la CAN. El resultado se encuentra descrito en el cuadro 13.
Adicionalmente, se encontró que excluyendo el PBI y la producción del sector no primario se obtiene un indicador altamente correlacionado con el primero (para cada país, los indicadores correspondientes tienen un coeficiente de correlación superior a 0.96). La actividad económica de los países de la CAN, según este segundo indicador de elaboración más sencilla, se encuentra descrita en el cuadro siguiente.
Perú 2021
¿Qué puede ocurrir en el Perú en los próximos trece años? Para contestar esta pregunta puede ser útil
diseñar una linera de referencia que muestre la trayectoria de las principales variables macroeconómicas.
Puede encontrar aquí tal línea de referencia y la trayectoria de los siguientes indicadores:
El Futuro de la Economía Mundial
Bruno Seminario
Profesor de la Universidad del Pacífico
Nos dice la tradición que fue Simónides de Ceos quien inventó el Arte de la Memoria: la técnica mnemotécnica que explican los antiguos tratados de retórica, entrena la memoria y le permite a un orador pronunciar con extrema exactitud y sin auxilio artificial, un discurso extenso. Propia de una civilización que aún no contaba con la tecnología para apoyar un recuerdo fácil, era indispensable para el ejercicio de la política en las ciudades del mundo clásico; pero, no es su función, lo más sorprendente sino su base conceptual. Porque el recuerdo sólo se hace vivo y transparente por la emoción intensa, el Arte dependía de una psicología práctica que conocía que el recuerdo podía ser estimulado por extremas imágenes visuales[1].
Que la Memoria artificial es extrema y estimulada por visiones vehementes es una hipótesis que puedo aceptar con facilidad, sino ¿por qué los libros de historia otorgan una atención desmesurada a las personalidades de las eras de convulsión y no a aquellas que pertenecen a las más tranquilas? Por ejemplo, la trágica figura de Juliano, el siglo pasado, ejerció sobre poetas, literatos y filósofos, una poderosa atracción, gracias a su peculiar personalidad y su intento fallido de revivir el paganismo. Empero, ¿no resulta incomprensible este interés tan abrumador, especialmente, cuando consideramos la corta duración del reinado del emperador en cuestión?
Debo interrumpir, por razones de espacio, esta breve digresión, pero antes de hacerlo me gustaría usarla para mostrar, en primer lugar, que los factores que rigen la dinámica de atenció0n humana puede responder a determinaciones que poco tienen que hacer con la realidad objetiva o la lógica más elemental. En segundo lugar, el recuerdo y el olvido, puede ser regido por poderosas fuerzas instintivas, visiones penetrantes pero concentradas en aspectos parciales de la realidad.
Hago estos comentarios porque después de leer varios documentos sobre la evolución de la economía mundial, me resultó evidente que su característica más distintiva no es su contenido sino la manera peculiar como interpretan el desastre financiero que ocurrió el año pasado. En efecto, tanto los gobiernos como las instituciones internacionales, en sus informes, parecen más interesados en justificar las principales decisiones de política y promover el optimismo, que en mostrar el curso probable de los desarrollos macroeconómicos.
Ni siquiera una institución tan polco comprometida con la desregulación y el neoliberalismo como la CEPAL, se salva de esta curiosa tendencia. Aunque el Estudio Económico para América Latina, publicado por esta institución en el mes de julio, menciona que vivimos en un momento crítico del desarrollo de América Latina, y, ofrece un excelente análisis de los efectos de la crisis sobre la región, también señala que la contracción que este año experimentará la producción será relativamente moderada. ¿Cuál es la razón? Una versión modificada de la teoría del "blindaje". Como ya resulta insostenible la afirmación de América Latina, pues la evidencia que la contradice es abrumadora, ahora, se sostiene que el efecto del desastre financiero, será moderado. Y, si esto no es consuelo suficiente, también se indica que el sistema de indicadores líderes de esta institución, ya detectó, en las principales economías, señales de recuperación. No consideró necesario comentar las asombrosas y aún más portentosas afirmaciones que podemos encontrar en la prensa financiera internacionales o en otros documentos preparados por otras instituciones internacionales.
No lo hago, porque me gustaría resumir las ideas contenidas en los publicados recientemente en Project Syndicate[2] por Dani Rodrick y Kenneth Rogoff, dos destacados economistas estadounidenses.
Sostiene, Daní Rodrick, en sugerente comentario, titulado ¿Un Mundo Desglobalizado?, que es improbable que la ecomía mundial siga siendo la misma, a pesar de que comparte la opinión de que tarde o temprano llegará la recuperación. Para él, cuando termine la crisis, nos encontraremos con nuevo mundo desglobalizado, en el que habrá menos financiamiento externo y en el que el comercio internacional crezca a un ritmo más lento. También señala que la nueva coyuntura puede afectar el dinamismo de aquellas economías que basaron sus economías en la reestructuración económica y la diversificación de su comercio exterior, especialmente sustanciales en su estrategia de desarrollo. Para el una estrategia que se orienta exclusivamente hacia el sector exportador. Debe , por esta razón, ser dejada de lado en favor de otra más equilibrada que le otorgue igual papel al desarrollo del mercado interno.
Rogoff, en "La Nueva Normalidad para el Crecimiento", llega esencialmente a la misma conclusión pero concentra su análisis en Estados Unidos y en las fuerzas estructurales que pueden limitar el dinamismo de la economía estadounidense en el próximo decenio. En efecto, que tanto Estados Unidos como China, deberán resignarse a una tasa media de crecimiento inferior a la que gozaron antes de la crisis. Lo que impide regresar a la situación anterior es que el consumo de los Estados Unidos, el motor del crecimiento mundial, será inferior por el desempleo creciente, el descenso de los precios de la vivienda, el endeudamiento de las familias estadounidenses, y la reducción en la riqueza de los pensionistas.
Para el Perú, estos escenarios pueden ser especialmente relevantes, y, sería indispensable volver a pensar desde esta perspectiva , el diseño de la política comercial , la política macroeconómica, y algunos aspectos de la política de desarrollo.
[1] [1] Sobre el “Arte de la Memoria” escribió , en 1966, Francis A. Yates un libro fascinante., publicado en inglés, por la Universidad de Chicago. Existe traducción al castellano hecha por la editorial Siruela. Esta misma editorial, ha publicado varias obras sobre el tema del filósofo español Ignacio Gómez de Liaño. Destacan “Filósofos Griegos, Videntes Judíos” y “El Círculo de la Sabiduría”.
[2] El lector interesado puede obtener una copia de estos ensayos en (Rogoff) http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/rogoff56 y (Rodrick) http://www.projectsyndicate.org/commentary/rodrik31/Spanish
El Arte de la Mentira Politica
THere is now in the press a curious piece, entitled 
; or, A Treatise of the Art of 
Consisting of Two Volumes in 4to.
I. That if the Author meets with suitable Encouragement, he intends to deliver the First Volume to the subscribers by Hilary Term next.
II. The Price of both Volumes will be, to the Subscribers, Fourteen Shillings, Seven whereof are to be paid down, and the other Seven at the delivery of the Second Volume.
III. Those that Subscribe for Six, shall have Seventh gratis; which reduces the price to less than Six Shillings a volume.
IV. That the Subscribers shall have their Names and Places of Abode Printed at length.
For the Encouragement of so useful a Work, it is thought that the Publick should be inform'd of the Contents of the First Volume, by one who has with great Care perused the Manuscript.
The Author, in his Preface, makes some very judicious Reflexions upon the Original of Arts and Sciences; that at first they consist of scatter'd Theorems and Practices, which are handed about among the Masters, and only reveal'd to the Filii Artis,[2] till such time as some great Genius appears, who collects these disjointed propositions, and reduces them into a regular System. That this is the Case of that Noble and Useful Art of Political Lying, which in this last Age having been enrich'd with several new Discoveries, ought not to Lye any longer in Rubbish and Confusion, but may justly claim a place in the Encyclop��dia, especially such as serves for a Model of Education for an able Politician; That he proposes to himself no small Stock of Fame in future Ages, in being the first who has undertaken this Design; and for the same Reason he hopes the Imperfection of his Work will be excused. He invites all Persons who have any Talents that way, or any new Discovery, to communicate their Thoughts, assuring them that honourable mention shall be made of them in his Work.
In the first Chapter of his excellent Treatise he reasons Philosophically concerning the Nature of the Soul of Man, and those Qualities which render it susceptible of Lyes. He supposes the Soul to be of the Nature of a Plano-Cylindrical Speculum, or Looking-glass; that the plain side was made by God Almighty, but that the Devil afterwards wrought the other side into a Cylindrical Figure. The plain side represents Objects just as they are; and the Cylindrical side, by the Rules of Catoptricks, must needs represent true Objects false, and false Objects true; but the Cylindrical side being much the larger Surface, takes in a greater Compass of visual Rays. That upon the Cylindrical side of the Soul of Man depends the whole Art and Success of Political Lying. The Author, in this Chapter, proceeds to reason upon the Qualities of the Mind: as, its great Fondness of the Malicious and the Miraculous. The Tendency of the Soul toward the Malicious, springs from Self-love, or a pleasure to find Mankind more wicked, base, or unfortunate than ourselves. The Design of the Miraculous proceeds from the Inactivity of the Soul, or its Incapacity to be moved or delighted with anything that is vulgar or common. The Author having establishd the Qualities of the Mind, upon which his Art is founded, he proceeds,
In his Second Chapter, to treat of the nature of Political Lying; which he defines to be, the Art of convincing the People of Salutary Falshoods, for some good End. He calls it an Art to distinguish it from that of telling Truth, which does not seem to want Art; but then he would have this understood only as to the invention, because there is indeed more Art necessary to convince the People of a Salutary Truth than a Salutary Falshood. Then he proceeds to prove that there are Salutary Falshoods, of which he gives a great many Instances, both before and after the Revolution; and demonstrates plainly, that we could not have carried on the War so long without several of those SalutaryFalshoods. He gives Rules to calculate the Value of a Political Lye, in Pounds, Shillings, and Pence. By Good, he does not mean that which is absolutely so, but what appears so to the Artist, which is a sufficient Ground for him to proceed upon; and he distinguishes the Good, as it commonly is, into Bonum utile, Dulce & Honestum.[3] He shews you that there are Political Lyes of a mix'd nature, which include all the Three in different respects : that the Utilereigns generally about the Exchange, the Dulce and Honestum at the Westminster End of the Town. One Man spreads a Lye to sell or Buy Stock to greater Advantage; a second, because it is honourable to serve his Party; and a third, because it is sweet to gratify his Revenge. Having explain'd the several Terms of his Definition, he proceeds,
In his Third Chapter, to treat of the Lawfulness of Political Lying; which he deduces from its true and genuine Principles, by inquiring into the several Rights that Mankind have to Truth. He shows that People have a Right to private Truth from their Neighbours, and ��conomical Truth from their own Family; that they should not be abused by their Wives, Children, and Servants; but, that they have no Right at all to Political Truth: That the People may as well all pretend to be Lords of Manors, and possess great Estates, as to have Truth told them in matters of Government. The Author, with great Judgment, states the several Shares of Mankind in this matter of Truth, according to their several Capacities, Dignities, and Professions; and shews you, that Children have hardly any share at all; in consequence of which, they have very seldom any Truth told them. It must be own'd that the Author, in this Chapter, has some seeming Difficulties to answer, to explain texts of Scripture, and a Sermon lately preach'd before Her Majesty at Windsor.
The Fourth Chapter is wholly employed in this question, Whether the Right of Coinage of political lyes be wholly in the Government. The Author, who is a true Friend to English Liberty, determines in the Negative, and answers all the Arguments of the opposite Party with great Acuteness: that, as the government of England has a mixture of Democratical in it, so the Right of Inventing and Spreading Political Lyes is partly in the People; and their obstinate Adherence to this just Privilege has been most conspicuous, and shin'd with great Lustre of late Years: That it happens very often, that there are no other Means left to the good People of England to pull down a Ministry and Government they are weary of, but by exercising this their undoubted Right: that Abundance of Political Lying is a sure sign of true English Liberty: that as ministers do sometimes use Tools to support their Power, it is but reasonable that the People should employ the same Weapon to defend themselves, and pull them down.
In his fifth Chapter, he divides Political Lyes into their several Species and Classes, and gives Precepts about the Inventing, Spreading, and Propagating the several sorts of them: He begins with the Rumores, and Libelli famosi,[4]such as concern the Reputation of men in Power; where he finds Fault with the common Mistake, that takes Notice only of one sort, viz. the Detractory or Defamatory; whereas in truth there are three sorts, the Detractory, the Additory, and the Translatory. The Additory gives to a Great Man a larger share of Reputation than belongs to him, to enable him to serve some good End or Purpose. The Detractory, or Defamatory, is a Lye which takes from a Great Man the Reputation that justly belongs to him, for fear he should use it to the Detriment of the Publick. The Translatory is a Lye, that a transfers the Merit of a Mans good Action to another, who is in himself more deserving; or transfers the Demerit of a bad Action from the true Author to a Person who is in himself less deserving. He gives several Instances of very great Strokes in all the Three Kinds, especially in the last, when it was necessary for the Good of the Publick to bestow the Valour and Conduct of one Man upon another, and that of many to one Man: nay, even upon a good Occasion, a Man may be rob'd of his Victory by a Person that did not Command in the Action.[5] The Restoring and Destroying the Publick may be ascrib'd to Persons who had no hand in either. The Author exhorts all Gentlemen Practitioners to exercise themselves in the Translatory, because the Existence of the Things themselves being visible, and not demanding any Proof, there wants nothing to be put upon the Publick, but a false Author, or a false Cause, which is no great Presumption upon the Credulity of Mankind, to whom the secret Springs of things are for the most part unknown.
The Author proceeds to give some Precepts as to the Additory. That when one ascribes any thing to a Person which does not belong to him, the Lye ought to be calculated not quite contradictory to his known qualities; Ex. gr. One would not make the French king present at a Protestant Conventicle; nor, like Queen Elizabeth, restore the Overplus of Taxes to her Subjects. One would not bring in the Emperor giving two Months Pay in Advance to his Troops; nor the Dutch paying more than their Quota. One would not make the same Person zealous for a Standing Army, and Publick Liberty; nor an Atheist support the Church; nor a lewd Fellow a Reformer of Manners; nor a hot-headed, crack-brain'd Coxcomb forward for a Scheme of Moderation. But, if it is absolutely necessary that a Person is to have some good adventitious Quality given him, the Authors Precept is, that it should not be done at first in extremo gradu.[6] For Example: they should not make a covetous Man give away all at once Five thousand Pounds in a charitable, generous way; Twenty or Thirty may suffice at first. They should not introduce a Person of remarkable Ingratitude to his Benefactors, rewarding a poor Man for some good Office that was done him thirty Years ago; but they may allow him to acknowledge a Service to a Person who is capable still to do him another. A Man whose personal Courage is suspected, is not at first to drive whole Squadrons before him; but he may be allowd the merit of some Squabble, or throwing a Bottle at his Adversary's head.
It will not be allow'd to make a Great Man that is a known Despiser of Religion spend whole Days in his Closet at his Devotion; but, you may with Safety make him sit out publick Prayers with Decency. A Great Man, who has never been known willingly to pay a just Debt, ought not all of a sudden to be introducd making restitution of Thousands he has cheated; let it suffice at first, to pay Twenty Pounds to a friend who has lost his Note.
He lays down the same Rules in the Detractory or Defamatory kind; that they should not be quite opposite to the Qualities the Persons are supposed to have. Thus it will not be found, according to the sound Rules of Pseudology to report of a pious and religious Prince that he neglects his Devotion, and would introduce Heresy; but you may report of a merciful Prince, that he has Pardon'd a Criminal who did not deserve it. You will be unsuccessful if you give out of a Great Man, who is remarkable for his Frugality for the Publick, that he squanders away the Nation's Money; but you may safely relate that he hoards it: You must not affirm he took a Bribe, but you may freely censure him for being tardy in his Payments; because, though neither may be true, yet the last is credible, the first not. Of an open-hearted, generous Minister, you are not to say, that he was in an Intrigue to Betray his Country; but you may affirm with some probability, that he was in an Intrigue with a Lady. He warns all Practitioners to take good heed to these Precepts for want of which Many of their Lyes of late have prov'd abortive or short-liv'd.
In the Sixth Chapter, he treats of the Miraculous; by which he understands any thing that exceeds the common Degrees of Probability. In respect of the People, it is divided into two sorts, the
, or the 
,[7] Terrifying Lye, and Animating or Encouraging Lye, both being extremely useful on their proper Occasions. Concerning the , he gives several Rules; one of which is, that terrible Objects should not be too frequently shewn to the People, lest they grow familiar. He says, it is absolutely necessary that the People of England should be frighted with the French King and the Pretender once a-Year; but that the Bears should be chain'd up again till that time Twelve-month. The want of Observing this so necessary a Precept, in bringing out the Raw-head and Bloody-bones upon every trifling Occasion, has produc'd great Indifference in the Vulgar of late Years. As to the Animating or Encouraging Lyes, he gives the following Rules: That they shall not far exceed the common degrees of Probability, and that there should be variety of them, and the same Lye not obstinately insisted upon: that the Promissory or Prognosticating Lyes should not be upon short Days, for fear the Authors should have the Shame and Confusion to see themselves speedily contradicted. He examines, by these Rules, that well-meant, but unfortunate Lye of the Conquest of France which continued near twenty Years together;[8] but at last, by being too obstinately insisted upon, it was worn threadbare, and became unsuccessful.
As to the
, or the Prodigious, he has little to advise, but that their Comets, Whales and Dragons should be sizeable; their Storms, Tempests, and Earthquakes, without the reach of a Day's Journey of a Man and Horse.
The Seventh Chapter is wholly taken up in an Enquiry, Which of the two Parties are the greatest Artists in Political Lying. He owns the Tories have been better believed of late; but, that the Whigs have much the greater Genius's amongst them. He attributes the ill success of the Whig-Party to their glutting the Market, and retailing too much of a bad Commodity at once: When there is too great a quantity of Worms, it is hard to catch Gudgeons. He proposes a Scheme for the Recovery of the Credit of the Whig Party, which indeed seems to be somewhat Chimerical, and does not savour of that sound Judgment the Author has shown in the rest of the Work. It amounts to this, That the Party should agree to vent nothing but Truth for three Months together, which will give them Credit for six Months Lying afterwards. He owns, that he believes it almost impossible to find fit Persons to execute this Scheme. Towards the end of the Chapter, he inveighs severely against the Folly of Parties, in retaining Scoundrels and Men of Low Genius to retail their Lyes; such as most of the present News-Writers are, who, besides a strong Bent and Inclination towards the Profession, seem to be wholly ignorant in the Rules of Pseudology, and not at all qualified for so weighty a Trust.
In his Eighth Chapter he treats of some extraordinary Genius's, who have appear'd of late Years, especially in their disposition towards the Miraculous. He advises those hopeful Young-men to turn their Invention to the Service of their Country, it being inglorious, at this time, to employ their Talent in prodigious Fox-Chases, Horse-Courses, Feats of Activity in Driving of Coaches, Jumping, Running, Swallowing of peaches, Pulling out whole Sets of Teeth to clean, &c. when their Country stands in so much need of their Assistance.
The Eighth Chapter is a Project for Uniting the several smaller Corporations of Lyars into one Society. It is too tedious to give a full Account of the whole Scheme; what is most remarkable is, that this Society ought to consist of the Heads of each Party; that no Lye is to pass current without their Approbation, they being the best Judges of the present Exigencies, and what sorts of Lyes are demanded: That in such a Corporation there ought to be Men of all Professions, that the
and the 
, that is, Decency and Probability, may be observ'd as much as possible: That, besides the Persons above-mentioned, this Society ought to consist of the hopeful Genius's about the Town (of which there are great plenty to be pick'd up in the several Coffee-houses) Travellers, Virtuoso's, Fox-hunters, Jockeys, Attorneys, Old Sea-men and Soldiers out of the Hospitals of Greenwich and Chelsea. To this Society, so Constituted, ought to be committed the sole Management of Lying. That in their outer Room there ought always to attend some Persons endow'd with a great Stock of Credulity, a Generation that thrives mightily in this Soil and Climate: he thinks a sufficient Number of them may be pick'd up any where about the Exchange: these are to Circulate what the other Coin; for no Man spreads a Lye with so good a Grace as he that believes it. That the Rule of the Society be to invent a Lye, and sometimes two, for every Day; in the Choice of which great Regard ought to be had to the Weather and the Season of the Year: Your 
, or terrifying Lyes, do mighty well in November andDecember, but not so well in May and June, unless the Easterly Winds reign. That it ought to be penal for anybody to talk of any thing but the Lye of the Day. That the Society is to maintain a sufficient number of Spies at court, and other Places, to furnish Hints and Topics for Invention; and a general Correspondence of all the Market-Towns, for circulating their Lyes: that if any one of the Society were observ'd to blush, or look out of Countenance, or want a necessary Circumstance in telling the Lye, he ought to be expell'd, and declar'd incapable. Besides the roaring Lies, there ought to be a private Committee for Whispers, constituted of the ablest Men of the Society. Here the Author makes a Digression in praise of the Whig-Party, for the right Understanding and Use of Proof-Lyes. A Proof-Lye is like a Proof-Charge for a Piece of Ordnance, to try a Standard-Credulity. Of such a nature he takes Transubstantiation to be in the Church of Rome, a Proof-Article, which if any one swallows, they are sure he will digest every thing else. Therefore the Whig-Party do wisely, to try the Credulity of the People sometimes bySwingers,[9] that they may be able to judge to what height they may Charge them afterwards. Towards the end of this Chapter, he Warns the Heads of Parties against Believing their own Lyes, which has prov'd of pernicious Consequence of late, both a Wise Party, and a Wise Nation having regulated their Affairs upon Lyes of their own Invention. The causes of this he supposes to be, too great a Zeal and Intenseness in the Practice of this Art, and a vehement Heat in mutual Conversation, whereby they perswade one another, that what they wish, and report to be true, is really so. That all Parties have been subject to this misfortune: The Jacobites have been constantly infested with it; but the Whigs of late seem ev'n to exceed them in this ill Habit and Weakness. To this Chapter, the Author subjoins a Calendar of Lyes proper for the Several Months of the Year.
The Ninth Chapter treats of the Celerity and Duration of Lyes. As to the Celerity of their Motion, the Author says it is almost incredible: He gives several Instances of Lyes that have gone faster than a Man can ride Post: yourTerrifying Lyes travel at a prodigious rate, above ten miles an hour; your Whispers move in a narrow Vortex, but very swiftly. The Author says it is impossible to explain several Ph��nomena in relation to the Celerity of Lyes, without the supposition of Synchronism and Combination. As to the Duration of Lyes, he says there are of all sorts, from Hours and Days to Ages; that there are some which, like your Insects, die and revive again in a different Form; that good Artists, like People who build upon a short Lease, will calculate the Duration of a Lye surely to answer their purpose; to last just as long, and no longer, than the Turn is served.
The Tenth Chapter treats of the characteristics of Lyes; how to know when, where, and by whom invented: Your Dutch, English and French Ware are amply distinguish'd from one another; an Exchange-Lye from one Coin'd at the other End of the Town; Great Judgment is to be shewn as to the Place where the Species is intended to Circulate: Very low and base Coin will serve for Wapping: there are several Coffee-houses that have their particular Stamps, which a judicious Practitioner may easily know. All your great men have their proper Phantateustics.[10] The Author says he has attained, by Study and Application, to so great Skill in this Matter that, bring him any Lye, he can tell whose Image it bears so truly, as the Great Man himself shall not have the face to deny it. The Promissory Lyes of Great men are known by Shouldering, Hugging, Squeezing, Smiling, Bowing; and Lyes in Matter of Fact, by immoderate Swearing.
He spends the whole Eleventh Chapter on one simple question, Whether a Lye is best contradicted by Truth, or another Lye. The Author says, that, considering the large Extent of the Cylindrical Surface of the Soul, and the great Propensity to believe Lyes in the generality of Mankind of late Years, he thinks the properest Contradiction to a Lye is another Lye. For Example, if it should be reported that the Pretender was in London, one would not contradict it by saying he never was in England; but you must prove by Eye-witnesses that he came no farther than Greenwich, and then went back again. Thus if it be spread about that a great Person were dying of some Disease, you must not say the Truth, that they are in health, and never had such a Disease; but that they are slowly recovering of it. So there was not long ago a Gentleman, who affirmed, that the Treaty with France, for bringing Popery and Slavery into England, was sign'd the 15th of September; to which another answered very judiciously, not by opposing Truth to his Lye, That there was no such treaty; but that, to his certain knowledge, there were many things in that Treaty not yet adjusted.
The account of the Second Volume of this Excellent Treatise, is reserv'd for another time.
Notes:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] (Swift took the MS of this pamphlet to the printer, Morphew, who printed most of the works by Tory authors of that period. ) ---He thus speaks of it in his "Journal to Stella" of Oct. 9, and Dec. 2, 1712:---"Arbuthnot has sent me, from Windsor, a pretty discourse upon lying; and I have ordered the printer to come for it. It is a proposal for publishing a curious piece, called, 'The Art of Political Lying,' in two volumes. &c.. and then there is an abstract of the first volume, just like those pamphlets which they call The Works of the Learned." "The pamphlet of Political Lying is written by Dr. Arbuthnot, the author of 'John Bull.' It is very pretty, but not so obvious to be understood." From Roscoe's note.
[2] "sons of the art," i.e., the initiated
[3] "the good that is useful, that which is sweet, that which is honorable"
[4] "rumors and libellous pamphlets"
[5] "Major-general Webb obtained a glorious victory over the French, near Wynedale, in the year 1708. He was sent with 6000 of the confederate troops to guard a great convoy to the allied army, besieging Lisle: Count de la Motte came out from Ghent, with nearly 24,000 men, to intercept them; but major-general Webb disposed his men with such admirable skill that, notwithstanding the vast superiority of numbers, by the pure force of order and disposition, the French were driven back in two or three successive attempts; and after having lost 6000 or 7000 men, could be brought to charge no more. This may justly be reckoned among the greatest actions of that war: but the duke of Marlborough's secretary, in his letter written to England, gave all the honour of it to general Cadogan, the duke's favourite, who did not come up till after the engagement. This was so resented by general Webb, that he left the army in disgust; and coming into England to do himself justice, received the unanimous thanks of the house of commons for his eminent services by that great action; which was also acknowledged, in a distinguishing manner by the king of Prussia, who bestowed on him the Order of Generosity. " ---Roscoe
[6] "in the highest degree, extravagantly"
[7] Arbuthnot translates his own Greek.
[8] "During the reigns of king William and queen Anne."---Roscoe
[9] "Something forcible or effective, esp. something very
big; a 'whopper.' "---OED
[10] Arbuthnot's pseudo-pedantic coinage, on themodel of "hermeneutics" probably meaning "art of interpreting images," where image is as used in "The US is campaigning to improve its image in the Middle East."
; or, A Treatise of the Art of Consisting of Two Volumes in 4to.The Proposals are,
I. That if the Author meets with suitable Encouragement, he intends to deliver the First Volume to the subscribers by Hilary Term next.
II. The Price of both Volumes will be, to the Subscribers, Fourteen Shillings, Seven whereof are to be paid down, and the other Seven at the delivery of the Second Volume.
III. Those that Subscribe for Six, shall have Seventh gratis; which reduces the price to less than Six Shillings a volume.
IV. That the Subscribers shall have their Names and Places of Abode Printed at length.
For the Encouragement of so useful a Work, it is thought that the Publick should be inform'd of the Contents of the First Volume, by one who has with great Care perused the Manuscript.
The Author, in his Preface, makes some very judicious Reflexions upon the Original of Arts and Sciences; that at first they consist of scatter'd Theorems and Practices, which are handed about among the Masters, and only reveal'd to the Filii Artis,[2] till such time as some great Genius appears, who collects these disjointed propositions, and reduces them into a regular System. That this is the Case of that Noble and Useful Art of Political Lying, which in this last Age having been enrich'd with several new Discoveries, ought not to Lye any longer in Rubbish and Confusion, but may justly claim a place in the Encyclop��dia, especially such as serves for a Model of Education for an able Politician; That he proposes to himself no small Stock of Fame in future Ages, in being the first who has undertaken this Design; and for the same Reason he hopes the Imperfection of his Work will be excused. He invites all Persons who have any Talents that way, or any new Discovery, to communicate their Thoughts, assuring them that honourable mention shall be made of them in his Work.
The First Volume consists of Eleven Chapters.
In the first Chapter of his excellent Treatise he reasons Philosophically concerning the Nature of the Soul of Man, and those Qualities which render it susceptible of Lyes. He supposes the Soul to be of the Nature of a Plano-Cylindrical Speculum, or Looking-glass; that the plain side was made by God Almighty, but that the Devil afterwards wrought the other side into a Cylindrical Figure. The plain side represents Objects just as they are; and the Cylindrical side, by the Rules of Catoptricks, must needs represent true Objects false, and false Objects true; but the Cylindrical side being much the larger Surface, takes in a greater Compass of visual Rays. That upon the Cylindrical side of the Soul of Man depends the whole Art and Success of Political Lying. The Author, in this Chapter, proceeds to reason upon the Qualities of the Mind: as, its great Fondness of the Malicious and the Miraculous. The Tendency of the Soul toward the Malicious, springs from Self-love, or a pleasure to find Mankind more wicked, base, or unfortunate than ourselves. The Design of the Miraculous proceeds from the Inactivity of the Soul, or its Incapacity to be moved or delighted with anything that is vulgar or common. The Author having establishd the Qualities of the Mind, upon which his Art is founded, he proceeds,
In his Second Chapter, to treat of the nature of Political Lying; which he defines to be, the Art of convincing the People of Salutary Falshoods, for some good End. He calls it an Art to distinguish it from that of telling Truth, which does not seem to want Art; but then he would have this understood only as to the invention, because there is indeed more Art necessary to convince the People of a Salutary Truth than a Salutary Falshood. Then he proceeds to prove that there are Salutary Falshoods, of which he gives a great many Instances, both before and after the Revolution; and demonstrates plainly, that we could not have carried on the War so long without several of those SalutaryFalshoods. He gives Rules to calculate the Value of a Political Lye, in Pounds, Shillings, and Pence. By Good, he does not mean that which is absolutely so, but what appears so to the Artist, which is a sufficient Ground for him to proceed upon; and he distinguishes the Good, as it commonly is, into Bonum utile, Dulce & Honestum.[3] He shews you that there are Political Lyes of a mix'd nature, which include all the Three in different respects : that the Utilereigns generally about the Exchange, the Dulce and Honestum at the Westminster End of the Town. One Man spreads a Lye to sell or Buy Stock to greater Advantage; a second, because it is honourable to serve his Party; and a third, because it is sweet to gratify his Revenge. Having explain'd the several Terms of his Definition, he proceeds,
In his Third Chapter, to treat of the Lawfulness of Political Lying; which he deduces from its true and genuine Principles, by inquiring into the several Rights that Mankind have to Truth. He shows that People have a Right to private Truth from their Neighbours, and ��conomical Truth from their own Family; that they should not be abused by their Wives, Children, and Servants; but, that they have no Right at all to Political Truth: That the People may as well all pretend to be Lords of Manors, and possess great Estates, as to have Truth told them in matters of Government. The Author, with great Judgment, states the several Shares of Mankind in this matter of Truth, according to their several Capacities, Dignities, and Professions; and shews you, that Children have hardly any share at all; in consequence of which, they have very seldom any Truth told them. It must be own'd that the Author, in this Chapter, has some seeming Difficulties to answer, to explain texts of Scripture, and a Sermon lately preach'd before Her Majesty at Windsor.
The Fourth Chapter is wholly employed in this question, Whether the Right of Coinage of political lyes be wholly in the Government. The Author, who is a true Friend to English Liberty, determines in the Negative, and answers all the Arguments of the opposite Party with great Acuteness: that, as the government of England has a mixture of Democratical in it, so the Right of Inventing and Spreading Political Lyes is partly in the People; and their obstinate Adherence to this just Privilege has been most conspicuous, and shin'd with great Lustre of late Years: That it happens very often, that there are no other Means left to the good People of England to pull down a Ministry and Government they are weary of, but by exercising this their undoubted Right: that Abundance of Political Lying is a sure sign of true English Liberty: that as ministers do sometimes use Tools to support their Power, it is but reasonable that the People should employ the same Weapon to defend themselves, and pull them down.
In his fifth Chapter, he divides Political Lyes into their several Species and Classes, and gives Precepts about the Inventing, Spreading, and Propagating the several sorts of them: He begins with the Rumores, and Libelli famosi,[4]such as concern the Reputation of men in Power; where he finds Fault with the common Mistake, that takes Notice only of one sort, viz. the Detractory or Defamatory; whereas in truth there are three sorts, the Detractory, the Additory, and the Translatory. The Additory gives to a Great Man a larger share of Reputation than belongs to him, to enable him to serve some good End or Purpose. The Detractory, or Defamatory, is a Lye which takes from a Great Man the Reputation that justly belongs to him, for fear he should use it to the Detriment of the Publick. The Translatory is a Lye, that a transfers the Merit of a Mans good Action to another, who is in himself more deserving; or transfers the Demerit of a bad Action from the true Author to a Person who is in himself less deserving. He gives several Instances of very great Strokes in all the Three Kinds, especially in the last, when it was necessary for the Good of the Publick to bestow the Valour and Conduct of one Man upon another, and that of many to one Man: nay, even upon a good Occasion, a Man may be rob'd of his Victory by a Person that did not Command in the Action.[5] The Restoring and Destroying the Publick may be ascrib'd to Persons who had no hand in either. The Author exhorts all Gentlemen Practitioners to exercise themselves in the Translatory, because the Existence of the Things themselves being visible, and not demanding any Proof, there wants nothing to be put upon the Publick, but a false Author, or a false Cause, which is no great Presumption upon the Credulity of Mankind, to whom the secret Springs of things are for the most part unknown.
The Author proceeds to give some Precepts as to the Additory. That when one ascribes any thing to a Person which does not belong to him, the Lye ought to be calculated not quite contradictory to his known qualities; Ex. gr. One would not make the French king present at a Protestant Conventicle; nor, like Queen Elizabeth, restore the Overplus of Taxes to her Subjects. One would not bring in the Emperor giving two Months Pay in Advance to his Troops; nor the Dutch paying more than their Quota. One would not make the same Person zealous for a Standing Army, and Publick Liberty; nor an Atheist support the Church; nor a lewd Fellow a Reformer of Manners; nor a hot-headed, crack-brain'd Coxcomb forward for a Scheme of Moderation. But, if it is absolutely necessary that a Person is to have some good adventitious Quality given him, the Authors Precept is, that it should not be done at first in extremo gradu.[6] For Example: they should not make a covetous Man give away all at once Five thousand Pounds in a charitable, generous way; Twenty or Thirty may suffice at first. They should not introduce a Person of remarkable Ingratitude to his Benefactors, rewarding a poor Man for some good Office that was done him thirty Years ago; but they may allow him to acknowledge a Service to a Person who is capable still to do him another. A Man whose personal Courage is suspected, is not at first to drive whole Squadrons before him; but he may be allowd the merit of some Squabble, or throwing a Bottle at his Adversary's head.
It will not be allow'd to make a Great Man that is a known Despiser of Religion spend whole Days in his Closet at his Devotion; but, you may with Safety make him sit out publick Prayers with Decency. A Great Man, who has never been known willingly to pay a just Debt, ought not all of a sudden to be introducd making restitution of Thousands he has cheated; let it suffice at first, to pay Twenty Pounds to a friend who has lost his Note.
He lays down the same Rules in the Detractory or Defamatory kind; that they should not be quite opposite to the Qualities the Persons are supposed to have. Thus it will not be found, according to the sound Rules of Pseudology to report of a pious and religious Prince that he neglects his Devotion, and would introduce Heresy; but you may report of a merciful Prince, that he has Pardon'd a Criminal who did not deserve it. You will be unsuccessful if you give out of a Great Man, who is remarkable for his Frugality for the Publick, that he squanders away the Nation's Money; but you may safely relate that he hoards it: You must not affirm he took a Bribe, but you may freely censure him for being tardy in his Payments; because, though neither may be true, yet the last is credible, the first not. Of an open-hearted, generous Minister, you are not to say, that he was in an Intrigue to Betray his Country; but you may affirm with some probability, that he was in an Intrigue with a Lady. He warns all Practitioners to take good heed to these Precepts for want of which Many of their Lyes of late have prov'd abortive or short-liv'd.
In the Sixth Chapter, he treats of the Miraculous; by which he understands any thing that exceeds the common Degrees of Probability. In respect of the People, it is divided into two sorts, the
, or the ,[7] Terrifying Lye, and Animating or Encouraging Lye, both being extremely useful on their proper Occasions. Concerning the , he gives several Rules; one of which is, that terrible Objects should not be too frequently shewn to the People, lest they grow familiar. He says, it is absolutely necessary that the People of England should be frighted with the French King and the Pretender once a-Year; but that the Bears should be chain'd up again till that time Twelve-month. The want of Observing this so necessary a Precept, in bringing out the Raw-head and Bloody-bones upon every trifling Occasion, has produc'd great Indifference in the Vulgar of late Years. As to the Animating or Encouraging Lyes, he gives the following Rules: That they shall not far exceed the common degrees of Probability, and that there should be variety of them, and the same Lye not obstinately insisted upon: that the Promissory or Prognosticating Lyes should not be upon short Days, for fear the Authors should have the Shame and Confusion to see themselves speedily contradicted. He examines, by these Rules, that well-meant, but unfortunate Lye of the Conquest of France which continued near twenty Years together;[8] but at last, by being too obstinately insisted upon, it was worn threadbare, and became unsuccessful.As to the
, or the Prodigious, he has little to advise, but that their Comets, Whales and Dragons should be sizeable; their Storms, Tempests, and Earthquakes, without the reach of a Day's Journey of a Man and Horse.The Seventh Chapter is wholly taken up in an Enquiry, Which of the two Parties are the greatest Artists in Political Lying. He owns the Tories have been better believed of late; but, that the Whigs have much the greater Genius's amongst them. He attributes the ill success of the Whig-Party to their glutting the Market, and retailing too much of a bad Commodity at once: When there is too great a quantity of Worms, it is hard to catch Gudgeons. He proposes a Scheme for the Recovery of the Credit of the Whig Party, which indeed seems to be somewhat Chimerical, and does not savour of that sound Judgment the Author has shown in the rest of the Work. It amounts to this, That the Party should agree to vent nothing but Truth for three Months together, which will give them Credit for six Months Lying afterwards. He owns, that he believes it almost impossible to find fit Persons to execute this Scheme. Towards the end of the Chapter, he inveighs severely against the Folly of Parties, in retaining Scoundrels and Men of Low Genius to retail their Lyes; such as most of the present News-Writers are, who, besides a strong Bent and Inclination towards the Profession, seem to be wholly ignorant in the Rules of Pseudology, and not at all qualified for so weighty a Trust.
In his Eighth Chapter he treats of some extraordinary Genius's, who have appear'd of late Years, especially in their disposition towards the Miraculous. He advises those hopeful Young-men to turn their Invention to the Service of their Country, it being inglorious, at this time, to employ their Talent in prodigious Fox-Chases, Horse-Courses, Feats of Activity in Driving of Coaches, Jumping, Running, Swallowing of peaches, Pulling out whole Sets of Teeth to clean, &c. when their Country stands in so much need of their Assistance.
The Eighth Chapter is a Project for Uniting the several smaller Corporations of Lyars into one Society. It is too tedious to give a full Account of the whole Scheme; what is most remarkable is, that this Society ought to consist of the Heads of each Party; that no Lye is to pass current without their Approbation, they being the best Judges of the present Exigencies, and what sorts of Lyes are demanded: That in such a Corporation there ought to be Men of all Professions, that the
and the , that is, Decency and Probability, may be observ'd as much as possible: That, besides the Persons above-mentioned, this Society ought to consist of the hopeful Genius's about the Town (of which there are great plenty to be pick'd up in the several Coffee-houses) Travellers, Virtuoso's, Fox-hunters, Jockeys, Attorneys, Old Sea-men and Soldiers out of the Hospitals of Greenwich and Chelsea. To this Society, so Constituted, ought to be committed the sole Management of Lying. That in their outer Room there ought always to attend some Persons endow'd with a great Stock of Credulity, a Generation that thrives mightily in this Soil and Climate: he thinks a sufficient Number of them may be pick'd up any where about the Exchange: these are to Circulate what the other Coin; for no Man spreads a Lye with so good a Grace as he that believes it. That the Rule of the Society be to invent a Lye, and sometimes two, for every Day; in the Choice of which great Regard ought to be had to the Weather and the Season of the Year: Your , or terrifying Lyes, do mighty well in November andDecember, but not so well in May and June, unless the Easterly Winds reign. That it ought to be penal for anybody to talk of any thing but the Lye of the Day. That the Society is to maintain a sufficient number of Spies at court, and other Places, to furnish Hints and Topics for Invention; and a general Correspondence of all the Market-Towns, for circulating their Lyes: that if any one of the Society were observ'd to blush, or look out of Countenance, or want a necessary Circumstance in telling the Lye, he ought to be expell'd, and declar'd incapable. Besides the roaring Lies, there ought to be a private Committee for Whispers, constituted of the ablest Men of the Society. Here the Author makes a Digression in praise of the Whig-Party, for the right Understanding and Use of Proof-Lyes. A Proof-Lye is like a Proof-Charge for a Piece of Ordnance, to try a Standard-Credulity. Of such a nature he takes Transubstantiation to be in the Church of Rome, a Proof-Article, which if any one swallows, they are sure he will digest every thing else. Therefore the Whig-Party do wisely, to try the Credulity of the People sometimes bySwingers,[9] that they may be able to judge to what height they may Charge them afterwards. Towards the end of this Chapter, he Warns the Heads of Parties against Believing their own Lyes, which has prov'd of pernicious Consequence of late, both a Wise Party, and a Wise Nation having regulated their Affairs upon Lyes of their own Invention. The causes of this he supposes to be, too great a Zeal and Intenseness in the Practice of this Art, and a vehement Heat in mutual Conversation, whereby they perswade one another, that what they wish, and report to be true, is really so. That all Parties have been subject to this misfortune: The Jacobites have been constantly infested with it; but the Whigs of late seem ev'n to exceed them in this ill Habit and Weakness. To this Chapter, the Author subjoins a Calendar of Lyes proper for the Several Months of the Year.The Ninth Chapter treats of the Celerity and Duration of Lyes. As to the Celerity of their Motion, the Author says it is almost incredible: He gives several Instances of Lyes that have gone faster than a Man can ride Post: yourTerrifying Lyes travel at a prodigious rate, above ten miles an hour; your Whispers move in a narrow Vortex, but very swiftly. The Author says it is impossible to explain several Ph��nomena in relation to the Celerity of Lyes, without the supposition of Synchronism and Combination. As to the Duration of Lyes, he says there are of all sorts, from Hours and Days to Ages; that there are some which, like your Insects, die and revive again in a different Form; that good Artists, like People who build upon a short Lease, will calculate the Duration of a Lye surely to answer their purpose; to last just as long, and no longer, than the Turn is served.
The Tenth Chapter treats of the characteristics of Lyes; how to know when, where, and by whom invented: Your Dutch, English and French Ware are amply distinguish'd from one another; an Exchange-Lye from one Coin'd at the other End of the Town; Great Judgment is to be shewn as to the Place where the Species is intended to Circulate: Very low and base Coin will serve for Wapping: there are several Coffee-houses that have their particular Stamps, which a judicious Practitioner may easily know. All your great men have their proper Phantateustics.[10] The Author says he has attained, by Study and Application, to so great Skill in this Matter that, bring him any Lye, he can tell whose Image it bears so truly, as the Great Man himself shall not have the face to deny it. The Promissory Lyes of Great men are known by Shouldering, Hugging, Squeezing, Smiling, Bowing; and Lyes in Matter of Fact, by immoderate Swearing.
He spends the whole Eleventh Chapter on one simple question, Whether a Lye is best contradicted by Truth, or another Lye. The Author says, that, considering the large Extent of the Cylindrical Surface of the Soul, and the great Propensity to believe Lyes in the generality of Mankind of late Years, he thinks the properest Contradiction to a Lye is another Lye. For Example, if it should be reported that the Pretender was in London, one would not contradict it by saying he never was in England; but you must prove by Eye-witnesses that he came no farther than Greenwich, and then went back again. Thus if it be spread about that a great Person were dying of some Disease, you must not say the Truth, that they are in health, and never had such a Disease; but that they are slowly recovering of it. So there was not long ago a Gentleman, who affirmed, that the Treaty with France, for bringing Popery and Slavery into England, was sign'd the 15th of September; to which another answered very judiciously, not by opposing Truth to his Lye, That there was no such treaty; but that, to his certain knowledge, there were many things in that Treaty not yet adjusted.
The account of the Second Volume of this Excellent Treatise, is reserv'd for another time.
FINIS
Notes:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[1] (Swift took the MS of this pamphlet to the printer, Morphew, who printed most of the works by Tory authors of that period. ) ---He thus speaks of it in his "Journal to Stella" of Oct. 9, and Dec. 2, 1712:---"Arbuthnot has sent me, from Windsor, a pretty discourse upon lying; and I have ordered the printer to come for it. It is a proposal for publishing a curious piece, called, 'The Art of Political Lying,' in two volumes. &c.. and then there is an abstract of the first volume, just like those pamphlets which they call The Works of the Learned." "The pamphlet of Political Lying is written by Dr. Arbuthnot, the author of 'John Bull.' It is very pretty, but not so obvious to be understood." From Roscoe's note.
[2] "sons of the art," i.e., the initiated
[3] "the good that is useful, that which is sweet, that which is honorable"
[4] "rumors and libellous pamphlets"
[5] "Major-general Webb obtained a glorious victory over the French, near Wynedale, in the year 1708. He was sent with 6000 of the confederate troops to guard a great convoy to the allied army, besieging Lisle: Count de la Motte came out from Ghent, with nearly 24,000 men, to intercept them; but major-general Webb disposed his men with such admirable skill that, notwithstanding the vast superiority of numbers, by the pure force of order and disposition, the French were driven back in two or three successive attempts; and after having lost 6000 or 7000 men, could be brought to charge no more. This may justly be reckoned among the greatest actions of that war: but the duke of Marlborough's secretary, in his letter written to England, gave all the honour of it to general Cadogan, the duke's favourite, who did not come up till after the engagement. This was so resented by general Webb, that he left the army in disgust; and coming into England to do himself justice, received the unanimous thanks of the house of commons for his eminent services by that great action; which was also acknowledged, in a distinguishing manner by the king of Prussia, who bestowed on him the Order of Generosity. " ---Roscoe
[6] "in the highest degree, extravagantly"
[7] Arbuthnot translates his own Greek.
[8] "During the reigns of king William and queen Anne."---Roscoe
[9] "Something forcible or effective, esp. something very
big; a 'whopper.' "---OED
[10] Arbuthnot's pseudo-pedantic coinage, on themodel of "hermeneutics" probably meaning "art of interpreting images," where image is as used in "The US is campaigning to improve its image in the Middle East."
¿Está el Perú en el Paraíso Terrenal?
Por mi amigo Fernando Fuenzalida, pude conocer la obra de Athanasius Kircher, un distinguido jesuita del siglo XVII, dedicado a investigar lo raro y lo curioso, y autor de desconcertantes libros. Se incluyen entre estos “Mundus subterraneus” donde trataba de determinar la ubicación de Atlantis, pero quizás más enigmático sea el Manuscrito Voynich, uno de los textos más misteriosos de la historia, este inquieto y curioso jesuita en el año 1665, recibió una copia de dicho manuscrito de manos de Johannes Marcus Marci, con la esperanza de que el sabio sacerdote lograra descifrar los arcanos ahí escondidos. Luego, se ha encontrado entre la correspondencia de Kircher numerosas cartas dirigidas a miembros de la compañía de Jesús que trabajaban en el antiguo Virreinato del Perú y sabemos que los jesuitas organizaron una expedición a una apartada región, hoy ubicada en Chile, que tenía como objetivo encontrar la entrada que conducía al Paraíso Terrenal .
Les cuento esta interesante historia, porque todo parece indicar que en los últimos años, ha aparecido en el Perú, una nueva sociedad secreta dedicada al estudio de los aspectos más desconcertantes del trabajo de Kircher. Al parecer, sus miembros al inicio del año 2007 concluyeron que este notable miembro de la Compañía de Jesús tenía razón cuando pensó que la entrada al Paraíso estaba localizada en los Andes, pero que erraba cuando la ubicó en el extremo sur de la cordillera. Piensan ahora estos neo kircherianos que la puerta que lleva al Paraíso terrenal se encuentra en el Perú, escondida entre la espesa vegetación que cubre la vertiente oriental de los andes peruanos.
Si le resulta increíble la historia, no se preocupe: los miembros de la nueva sociedad anticiparon esta natural reacción, por eso, han diseñado un plan para transformar nuestra psicología y conducirnos con necesaria tranquilidad y orden hacia la escondida puerta que conduce al paraíso.
Un componente esencial de este intrincado plan de transformación espiritual consiste en mostrarnos cómo la crisis más profunda que ha sufrido la economía mundial en los últimos 70 años no afecta a la economía peruana. Sin duda, un objetivo difícil de alcanzar, pero la dificultad no es algo que atemorice a espíritus tan optimistas como el de los neo kircherianos. Después de todo son mayores los obstáculos necesarios a superar para descubrir la entrada que Dios ocultó en los tiempos del sueño.
Por el insólito éxito que hasta ahora parece tener esta estrategia sicológica, no queda sino confesar una prudente sorpresa. A lo largo de todo el año pasado, he podido comprobar la enorme popularidad de las distintas fábulas que inventaron los tenaces discípulos de Athanasius: la interpretación inicial de la crisis financiera, la teoría del blindaje, la falaz creencia de que el Mundo podía crecer aunque no lo hiciera Estados Unidos, la peregrina idea de que China, la India , Brasil, y Rusia podían mantener el crecimiento mundial, que “la segunda derivada” muestra claros indicios de reactivación, y, en este último trimestre, aprovechar ciertas propiedades estadísticas de las series económicas –por ejemplo, la tendencia a la reversión a la media, o las asimetrías de las tasas de crecimiento-, para convencer a la gente de una inminente recuperación de la economía mundial. Aunque todavía no comprendo por qué mitos tan falaces puede ser tan populares, me atrevería a conjeturar que podemos encontrar la respuesta en los mensajes ocultos contenidos en el libro del filósofo Jean Braudillard sobre la primera Guerra del Golfo, donde se argumentaba (hasta el colmo de lo absurdo) que ese suceso nunca había existido.
Como las limitaciones de espacio nos impiden analiza la composición, modo de operación, lógica interna e impactos psicológicos de todos estos cuentos neo kircherianos nos concentraremos en el examen de cómo pueden ser utilizadas determinadas cifras estadísticas para repletar nuestro espíritu de un cándido optimismo. Tomemos como ejemplo los guarismos del Producto Bruto Interno, suelen ser publicados trimestralmente por todas las oficinas estadísticas del mundo, aunque el Perú el INEI los anuncia mensualmente, los economista están convencidos de que este indicador, por su cobertura, es la mejor medida de actividad económica. Sin embargo, un examen más detallado de la data nos revela que este famoso índice no marca con precisión en ningún país la marcha del ciclo económico, por esta razón el National Bureau Research (NBER) una venerable institución estadounidense que determina la fecha en que se inician las recesiones en Estados Unidos no lo incluye entre sus series de referencia.
El problema es que hay una abisal discrepancia entre lo que se ofrece y lo que se entrega, pues el producto final incluye algunos datos de la economía real, provenientes principalmente de los sectores que producen bienes materiales, con data originada de una miríada de forma: ya sea mediante prácticas consagradas por la costumbre, atrevidas conjeturas de las oficinas de estadística, modelos económicos de resultado no verificables y finalmente , en algunos países, una gran cantidad e imaginación, agrava esta situación el tránsito que se ha registrado en todo el mundo hacia una sociedad postindustrial, ya que este ha hecho aumentar la importancia que en el Producto Bruto Interno posee el sector servicios, un conjunto de industrias donde por su naturaleza las dificultades en cuantificarlas son inmensas. Para poder ilustrar cuan arbitrarias pueden llegar a ser estas medidas, hemos cuantificado el comportamiento de este índice utilizando la antigua metodología, la cual exponemos en la correspondiente tabla:
Muestra el cuadro la evolución que hubiera tenido el PBI peruano si el INEI hubiera seguido el viejo método, hemos incluido una columna que nos permite comparar nuestro valor con el que actualmente reporta el INEI, la diferencia es apreciable, en el mes de marzo, por ejemplo, el INEI reportó un crecimiento de 3.3% mientras que con la antigua metodología se hubiese obtenido un valor de -1.71%, es decir, hay una diferencia de -4.76 puntos porcentuales.
Debemos, sin embargo, advertir, que estos números son aproximaciones pues es secreto el resultado oficial que habría arrojado la vieja metodología, para replicarlo, hemos tenido que superar varios obstáculos que pueden ilustrar la transparencia de la política estadística que practica el gobierno peruano. Para comenzar, la base de datos necesaria para realizar este cálculo se encuentra disponible en la página Web del INEI, en un archivo de Excel, sin embargo, éste está protegido por una contraseña, de manera que quien quisiera verificar el cálculo tiene que ingeniárselas para decodificar la clave secreta, si como nosotros tuviese a algún amigo experto en informática que pudiese romper la protección, puede comenzar a penetrar en los misterios que se esconden en el cálculo gubernamental. En seguida, se encontraría con dos problemas adicionales: las celdas que contienen las fórmulas matemáticas relevantes están ocultas, y han sido escritas del mismo color que el fondo, de manera que un lector confiado aún si pudiese descubrir las celdas ocultas, en un primer intento no lograría hallar ninguna información. Luego, si perseverase en el empeño, y con algo de desconfianza, encontraría las fórmulas encubiertas, las cuales, registran un sistema de ecuaciones simultáneas que no hemos podido averiguar si han sido resueltas cabalmente
¿Cuál es el cálculo verdadero? Probablemente ninguno, ya que ambos métodos son meras aproximaciones, sin embargo, para terminar debemos de indicar que el viejo método por lo menos tiene la ventaja de no producir resultados que contradicen el sentido común.
Encendiendo los Motores del Crecimiento Mundial
Encendiendo los Motores del Crecimiento Mundial, es el nombre de este importante foro que congregó a un destacado grupo de expertos nacionales e internacionales, para analizar el tema desde la perspectiva de Europa, China, Estados Unidos y Perú. Los egresados de la Universidad se dieron cita el 29 de abril en el Hotel El Pueblo para analizar los alcances de la crisis mundial en el marco de las lecciones y oportunidades que se podrían perfilar en este contexto.
Los expositores fueron: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Chief Economist, Head of Economics Department OECD), Piero Ghezzi (egresado UP Managing Director and Head of Global Economics and Emerging Markets Research Barclays Capital), Ya-Lan Liu (Chief Economist for Asia BBVA ), Renzo Rossini (Presidente del Directorio del BCRP y egresado UP), Jürgen Schuldt (Universidad del Pacífico) y Bruno Seminario (Universidad del Pacífico y director de la revista “Punto de Equilibrio”)
A continuación algunas de las presentaciones:
Europa: La crisis financiera y la recesión mundial: Perspectivas en los G-7 y BRIC y Respuestas de Política
KSH U del Pacifico Lima abril 2009 - completo.ppt
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel
EEUU: ¿Qué debemos esperar de la economía de EEUU?
Piero Ghezzi
China: El papel de China en la crisis actual
Ya-Lan Liu
El progreso de la crisis económica en Perú
Progreso de la crisis en PERU2.ppt
Bruno Seminario
Progreso de la crisis en PERU2.ppt
Bruno Seminario
El Canto de las Cigarras
Nada dice
En el canto de la cigarra
Que su fin está cerca
Basho
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Perciben los hombres los hechos ocurridos; los sabios, los que se aproximan y solo los inmortales, los futuros, decía Filóstrato, en su Vida de Apolonio de Tiana, hace ya 17 siglos. Llena de momentos memorables en la historia humana, estos sucesos especiales suelen establecer los lindes de las épocas; sin embargo, también es bueno recordar que cuando llegan estos, pocos pueden advertir su real valía. ¿Nos ha tocado vivir en esta frontera concluyente? Crisis económica, pero también intelectual, ideológica, política y social, que pone en cuestión los fundamentales del orden global. Ningún país parece salvarse del derrumbe: el avance de la división del trabajo integró a todos en una vulnerable red y ahora el colapso arruina, sin importar la virtud, por igual.
No necesitamos conocer las causas de la crisis para apreciar la magnitud de la nueva catástrofe económica. Según las últimas proyecciones del Fondo Monetario Internacional, la tasa de crecimiento de la economía mundial sería de 0,5% en el año 2009, la tasa más baja registrada desde el fin de la Segunda Guerra Mundial. Por primera vez en 60 años, la producción de las economías más avanzadas experimentaría un retroceso; en 8 millones aumentaría, en los países de la OECD, el número de desempleados y en 100 millones, el número de pobres; el volumen del comercio internacional de bienes y servicios descendería 2,9%. ¿Cuántas personas en el mundo son capaces de comprender un guarismo tan inmensurable como 32 trillones de dólares, monto en que se estiman las pérdidas de los mercados bursátiles? Equivale la cifra al producto interno bruto (PIB) conjunto de todos los países de la OECD en el año
Con claridad nos revela, la información estadística inquirida, que hemos ingresado a una nueva fase de la crisis económica. Si la característica distintiva de la primera fase fue el colapso financiero, ahora la acción se ha trasladado al sector real de la economía: la parálisis del crédito ha afectado fundamentalmente a los sectores más dinámicos de la economía mundial, el descenso de la producción habrías sido más intenso en Asia y en la UE que en Estados Unidos. Aunque las estadísticas que muestran la evolución por componentes del PBI de Estados Unidos nos indican una enorme dispersión en las tasas de crecimiento de los distintos componentes de la demanda agregada, podemos extraer la conclusión de que la parálisis del crédito ha afectado fundamentalmente a tres de sus componentes: Primero, la demanda de bienes de consumo durables: (autos, computadoras, televisores, y, otros aparatos electrónicos) ha descendido significativamente, segundo; también el consumo conspicuo, y por último lugar, la inversión en construcción ha sufrido de igual forma.
Este patrón de descenso en la demanda ha determinado una drástica reducción en las exportaciones de todas las economías asiáticas. Como todas ellas basan su crecimiento en las exportaciones y su sector industrial se orienta básicamente hacia el exterior, no es sorprendente que sea en esta región del mundo donde se observan las reducciones más drásticas en el empleo, los índices de producción industrial y el producto interno bruto. En efecto, las últimas estadísticas nos muestran que las consecuencias del ajuste han sido drásticas en todos estos países. Sería importante para el Perú analizar la reducción que se ha registrado en el consumo conspicuo, ya que muchas de nuestras exportaciones no tradicionales se orientan hacia este sector. Sin duda, el origen fundamental del crecimiento en la demanda de dicho consumo está ligado al crecimiento del sector financiero y a la concentración del ingreso que ha habido en los últimos años. De manera que no debe sorprendernos que el colapso de la banca de inversión haya provocado un colapso en la demanda por este tipo de bienes, así como en la gama de industrias y servicios que satisfacían esta necesidad. Además, como varios de los productos textiles y agroindustriales que exporta el Perú se orientan a este sector, habría un serio peligro para el futuro de nuestra industria textil. Es probable que, en los próximos meses, comencemos a ver similares efectos en el sector agroindustrial. Asimismo, las dificultades en la banca de inversión causarían problemas serios en la demanda de servicios informáticos, pues este sector es el mayor demandante de información.
El descenso en la demanda de bienes durables y en la inversión bruta fija afecta directamente la demanda de metales. Por esta razón, serán estas materias primas las que experimenten en el año 2009 los peores desempeños. En América del Sur, Chile y el Perú serán las economías más afectadas. El descenso en los precios reducirá el flujo de inversión directa extranjera mas no necesariamente la cantidad producida, que incluso, en el corto plazo, aumentaría, porque las minas suelen explotar los yacimientos más ricos cuando caen los precios. Esta respuesta, sin embargo, provocaría una gran acumulación de inventarios en el mercado y prolongaría por varios años la recuperación en los precios. Es probablemente por esta razón que los precios de los metales industriales continúen descendiendo, aunque se recuperase Estados Unidos a finales de 2009.
En la UE también se experimentaría una recesión más intensa que en los Estados Unidos, pero de una naturaleza diferente. En Europa Oriental, lo fundamental es la reducción en los flujos de inversión extranjera. Estos países experimentan una crisis muy similar a la que experimentó América Latina en los años 1980 (y también se han visto obligados a recurrir al FMI). En España, Inglaterra y los países escandinavos, la principal causa de la crisis es financiera: en España, por ejemplo, hubo un boom hipotecario muy similar al de los Estados Unidos. Ahora, su industria de construcción experimenta una contracción similar a la de este último país. Inglaterra, en especial Londres, desempeñó un papel crucial como centro de actividad especulativa, de manera que ahora debe enfrentar las consecuencias del desplome de esta industria. En Alemania, sin embargo, la causa puede estar vinculada al comercio exterior. Sin embargo, estos desarrollos económicos, en el caso de Europa, no necesariamente son los que tienen más relevancia. En realidad, todo el proceso ha puesto en severa tensión las instituciones de la Comunidad y por esta razón pueden ser las consecuencias políticas las más relevantes.
¿Qué consecuencias puede tener esta gran crisis en la economía mundial? ¿Anuncia, acaso, esta mayúscula catástrofe una radical transformación del sistema mundo? ¿Qué reflejan los hechos de los cuales hemos sido testigos el año pasado? ¿Provocará el colapso del sistema financiero, el retroceso de la producción, el desempleo masivo, las quiebras y los rescates de emergencia una revisión de la misma magnitud en las ideas, la política y el poder en el mundo?
Cuando los historiadores del futuro escriban el relato de esta crisis, no podrán omitir en su crónica el papel que desempeñó en ella el cándido optimismo que nubló el entendimiento de los principales protagonistas. Para los optimistas es bastante claro el patrón de desarrollo futuro de la economía mundial. La fuerza básica será el continuo crecimiento de China, la India, Brasil y Rusia, las economías emergentes de mayor tamaño, que inducirá un cambio radical en la distribución geográfica de la actividad económica hacia Asia y un aumento en su influencia geopolítica. Provocará este proceso, en primer lugar, un aumento sostenible en el precio de la energía, los metales y los alimentos, que transmitirá los beneficios a los países exportadores de productos básicos en América Latina y África. También, cambios considerables en el patrón del comercio internacional y los flujos internacionales de capitales. Como consecuencia de estos, se alterará la estructura de gobierno del mundo para reflejar el poder de los nuevos gigantes emergentes. Sin embargo, de igual forma, el conjunto de alteraciones podría transformar la regulación en los países centrales, ya que es probable que los fondos soberanos de inversiones y los flujos de inversión directa extranjera realizados por estados nacionales sean vistos con preocupación por los políticos de estos países. En este sentido, es probable –por dichas razones– que surja un nuevo protagonismo financiero, pero la justificación de este podría llevar a una revaluación de los postulados de la globalización, como resultado de la cual habrá un incremento del papel que desempeña el Gobierno en la economía mundial, que pondrá poner fin a la era neoliberal. El gran problema de la visión optimista es que confunde un resultado que se materializaría al finalizar la presente centuria con la situación efectiva que se observa en el presente.
Nos muestra la historia que la emergencia de un gigante económico y la sustitución de una potencia por otra no es un proceso libre de turbulencias económicas, sociales y políticas. Debemos considerar que el desarrollo de una economía capitalista, especialmente cuando es tan desequilibrado como el caso chino, no se encuentra libre de retrocesos y crisis profundas. Ya los indicadores de la economía china registran signos evidentes de sobreinversión. Para comenzar, debemos notar que la rentabilidad del capital parece bastante baja, la inversión en China representa casi el 50% de su PBI, mientras que su tasa de crecimiento ha sido de 10%; es decir, aunque la tasa de crecimiento es sumamente alta, la relación capital producto que se deriva sugeriría una inmensa capacidad de producción con altas posibilidades de no ser utilizada. Luego, el patrón de desarrollo económico chino es excepcional: al apoyarse excesivamente en las industrias de exportación, es sumamente vulnerable a las alteraciones cíclicas que se producen en los mercados de destino de sus exportaciones y a las acciones de política orientadas a limitar su expansión comercial. Es poco probable, también, que los países desarrollados estén dispuestos a ceder a China el control de segmentos estratégicos de su aparato industrial por razones de seguridad nacional. De modo que si China continuase por este camino podría estallar una nueva guerra comercial y, así, una segmentación creciente del mundo. Esta dependencia de mercados externos hace notar que la estructura comercial china no genera al interior de su país un mercado suficiente como para absorber la producción que podría ocasionar tan monumental esfuerzo de inversión, el modelo mercantilista chino estaría aplazando una futura crisis de subconsumo. Finalmente –para culminar este párrafo–, es poco probable que las autoridades chinas controlen en el corto plazo el impacto en el sector financiero de las entradas de capitales. Los indicadores sugieren que una facción considerable de los fondos ha sido usada en aventuras especulativas, tanto la bolsa como el precio de la propiedad en sus principales ciudades han crecido en niveles difíciles de justificar.
En cualquier caso, incluso en el escenario que imaginaron los optimistas, no se garantiza en el momento actual una salida fácil de la crisis, porque todavía –desafortunadamente– el dinamismo del mercado estadounidense y las decisiones que tomen sus principales líderes son esenciales para el mundo.
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